نشریه علمی-پژوهشی مکانیک سنگ

نشریه علمی-پژوهشی مکانیک سنگ

مدیریت ریسک در پروژه‌های تونلی: رویکرد فازی TOPSIS برای بهبود تصمیم‌گیری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی انگلیسی

نویسندگان
گروه استخراج، دانشکده معدن و مواد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
چکیده
ارزیابی ریسک یک وظیفه حیاتی در پروژه‌های تونل‌سازی است، با این حال روش‌های کلاسیک اغلب در مدیریت کافی عدم قطعیت‌های ذاتی قضاوت‌های کارشناسی شکست می‌خورند. این مقاله یک تحلیل ریسک مقایسه‌ای با استفاده از دو تکنیک تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره ارائه می‌دهد: TOPSIS کلاسیک و TOPSIS فازی. این مطالعه ابتدا با استفاده از روش TOPSIS کلاسیک، که به ورودی‌های عددی قطعی متکی است، یک رتبه‌بندی ریسک پایه ایجاد می‌کند. سپس روش TOPSIS فازی را بر روی همان مجموعه داده‌ها اعمال می‌کند و از نظریه مجموعه‌های فازی برای مدل‌سازی ابهام و عدم قطعیت زبانی در ارزیابی‌های کارشناسی استفاده می‌کند. این روش‌ها در یک مطالعه موردی از یک پروژه ساخت تونل اعمال می‌شوند و 17 ریسک متمایز را در 11 معیار ارزیابی می‌کنند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که در حالی که هر دو روش ریسک‌های با اولویت بالا مشابهی را شناسایی می‌کنند، رتبه‌بندی نهایی متفاوت است. مدل TOPSIS فازی، با در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت، اولویت‌بندی قوی‌تر و ظریف‌تری را ارائه می‌دهد و ریسک‌های مالک (R10) و ریسک‌های سایت/محیط زیست (R5) را بحرانی‌تر از روش کلاسیک شناسایی می‌کند. این مطالعه نتیجه می‌گیرد که رویکرد فازی TOPSIS ابزاری برتر و قابل اعتمادتر برای تصمیم‌گیرندگان است و چارچوبی واقع‌بینانه‌تر برای مدیریت ریسک‌های پیچیده در پروژه‌های تونل‌سازی ارائه می‌دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
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