نشریه علمی-پژوهشی مکانیک سنگ

نشریه علمی-پژوهشی مکانیک سنگ

پیش‌بینی حداکثر نشست سطح زمین ناشی از معدنکاری جبهه‌کار طویل با استفاده از مدل ترکیبی ماشین بردار پشتیبان و الگوریتم فراابتکاری عقاب طلایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
دانشکده مهندسی معدن، پردیس دانشکدگان فنی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
در این مقاله، هدف توسعه مدل‌هایی داده‌محور برای پیش‌بینی حداکثر نشست سطح زمین (Smax) ناشی از استخراج زغال‌سنگ به روش جبهه‌کار طویل است؛ پدیده‌ای که از چالش‌های اساسی مهندسی معدن محسوب می‌شود و پیش‌بینی آن می‌تواند در کاهش خسارات اعمالی به سازه‌های سطحی و زیرسطحی مجاور و ارتقاء ایمنی عملیات معدنی مؤثر باشد. بدین منظور، ۴۶ دسته داده معتبر از مطالعات پیشین شامل سه پارامتر کلیدی ضخامت لایه زغال‌سنگ (hs)، عمق روباره (H) و عرض پهنه استخراجی (Lw) گردآوری شد.در ادامه، یک مدل پیش‌بینی‌کننده ترکیبی مبتنی بر رگرسیون ماشین بردار پشتیبان (SVR) که با الگوریتم فراابتکاری عقاب طلایی (GEO) بهینه‌سازی شده است توسعه یافت. به‌منظور ارزیابی عملکرد این مدل، یک مدل مقایسه‌ای نیز بر پایه رگرسیون چندمتغیره غیرخطی (NLMR) توسعه داده شد. برای ارزیابی تعمیم‌پذیری و پایداری مدل SVR-GEO، از تکنیک اعتبارسنجی متقابل5-بخشی استفاده شد. عملکرد مدل‌های پیشنهادی در مراحل آموزش و تست با بهره‌گیری از دیاگرام تیلور، منحنی مشخصه خطای رگرسیون (REC) و شش شاخص آماری شامل ضریب تعیین (R²)، شمول واریانس (VAF)، a20، جذر میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)، میانگین قدرمطلق خطا (MAE) و میانگین درصد خطای مطلق (MAPE) مورد ارزیابی و مقایسه با شش رابطه تجربی رایج قرار گرفت. نتایج بدست آمده از دیاگرام تیلور و منحنی مشخصه خطای رگرسیون (REC) حاکی از آن است که مدل SVR-GEO در هر دو مرحله آموزش و تست عملکرد به‌مراتب بهتری نسبت به مدل NLMR و روابط تجربی دارد. همچنین، نتایج بدست آمده براساس شاخص‌های آماری نشان داد که مدل SVR-GEO دارای بالاترین دقت و کمترین میزان خطا نسبت به مدل‌ NLMR و روابط تجربی است؛ به‌طوری‌که مقادیر شاخص‌های R²، VAF، a20، RMSE، MAE و MAPE این مدل به ترتیب در مرحله آموزش 0.988، 98.8%، 0.946، 0.134، 0.053 و 5.7% و در مرحله تست 0.942، 93.9%، 0.778، 0.292، 0.235 و 19.7% بدست آمد. در نهایت، نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نشان داد که ضخامت لایه زغال‌سنگ (hs) بیشترین تأثیر را بر Smax دارد و پس از آن، عرض پهنه (Lw) و عمق روباره (H) در اولویت قرار دارند. بنابراین، مدل پیشنهادی SVR-GEO می‌تواند به‌عنوان ابزاری دقیق، مطمئن و کارآمد برای پیش‌بینی Smax در پروژه‌های معدنی به روش جبهه‌کار طویل مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

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