JOURNAL OF ROCK MECHANICS

JOURNAL OF ROCK MECHANICS

Application of Time Series Model to Predict the Penetration Rate of Tunnel Boring Machine

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Department of Mining Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Science and Research Branch.
2 Faculty of Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
In mechanized excavation, the penetration rate determines the costs and excavation time of the project. Therefore, the prediction of the penetration rate is very important and decisive. The penetration rate is the ratio of the excavated distance to the time during continuous excavation. Since the penetration rate parameter is recorded for different excavation cycles and, on the other hand, a time series is an ordered sequence of observations and, given the past and present values, the future values ​​of the series can be predicted, this study examines the application of the time series model in predicting the penetration rate of TBM. The penetration rate values ​​of more than 2300 excavation cycles in the Zagros Long Tunnel have been analyzed. The results of predicting the penetration rate with the time series model show a matching coefficient of 87 percent and indicate the capability and appropriate application of the time series approach in predicting the penetration rate of TBM.
Keywords

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